Why Is Gallup Still Running a Tracking Poll of Registered Voters?
Posted by WLS:
We’re now 26 days out from the election, and the Real Clear Politics Average of all published national polls gives Obama a statistically significant edge at 49.1 to 43.5.
The range of published polls is from the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll that has Obama +11, to the Battleground Tracking Poll and a couple others which has Obama +3. I mention the Battleground Poll because I’ve always thought it was one of the most trustworthy because it’s jointly done by a GOP pollster and a Dem. pollster, who have separate polling firms but conduct the Battleground poll together every four years.
On the other hand, Gallup is one of the last organizations that is still tracking “Registered Voters” rather than “Likely Voters.” As a result, when it weighs its poll results it is not screening out voters who have historically voted in percentages less than their registration numbers suggested. This tends to both over-represent segments of the population not likely to vote in proportion to their registration statistics, while at the same time watering-down the impact of those segments of the population that have historically voted in higher than average percentage in relationship to the population overall.
Right now at realclearpolitics.com there are 10 national polls with numbers from samples taken over the past 8 days. Of those 10 polls, 7 are of LV, while 3 are of RV.
The numbers from the LV polls are:
Rasmussen: Obama +5 – 50-45
Hotline/FD: Obama +6 — 47-41
Rueters/Zogby: Obama +4 — 48-44
Battleground: Obama +3 — 48-45
CBS/NYT : Obama +3 — 48-45
CNN: Obama +8 — 53-45
Democracy Corps — Obama +3 49-43
The average of those 7 polls of LV is: 49-44 – Obama +5
That includes the CNN poll which has Obama +8 and at 53%, and appears to be an outlier. Without that one he’s at 48.3. McCain’s number would dip slightly to 43.8, and the lead would be 4.5%.
Here are the three RV polls:
Gallup: Obama +11 — 52-41
NBC/WSJ: Obama +6 — 49-43
Ipsos/McClatchey: Obama +7 — 47-40
Average: 49.3 — 41.3 — Obama +8.
That’s a swing of 3.5% between the two sets of polls. IMO, Gallup can be ignored from this point forward unless they switch to a LV poll.
I don’t know that I would go so far as to say “ignore Gallup,” but it should be seen for what it is. I think most pollsters would say that coming up with a really good LV screen this year is more challenging than in the past, so the occasional look at the RV numbers doesn’t hurt.
BTW, people should also note that the GW and Hotline trackers sample a relatively small number daily, and will be prone to volatility.
Comment by Karl — 10/9/2008 @ 1:24 pm
And this is precisely why I’ve stopped paying attention to any polls. Gallup’s numbers are obviously so far out there as to be completely useless, but…well, after 2004, it’s clear that polling is nowhere near as exact a science as some think it is. Rather, I’m going by what I see. And what I see is an Obama campaign that was barely able to close out Hillary for the nomination, and alienated a fair number of Democrats in the process. I also see Sarah Palin speaking to packed rallies (with hundreds to thousands more turned away at each because the venue’s full), even in deep blue states like California. Maybe I’m an optimist, but that’s just what I see.
Comment by Chris — 10/9/2008 @ 1:26 pm
Polling registered voters can be an especially difficult problem when 105% of the voting age population is registered in a county.
Comment by JD — 10/9/2008 @ 1:30 pm
I think the average of all polls gives a pretty accurate assessment of the state of the race. The movement of the numbers in combination gives you an idea of momentum.
Collectively, the polls show a 4-5 point race.
But they also show the race is significantly closer today than it was 15 days ago in the middle of the financial meltdown before the first debate.
This reinforces the point I made yesterday — those voters that exist in Obama’s polling margin from 45-51% are not wedded to him. His continuing inability to close the deal with them leaves him vulnerable, and represents a continuing opportunity for McCain.
Comment by WLS — 10/9/2008 @ 1:54 pm
Here’s the deal. The DemocRATS are using any means necessary including manipulating the MSM, voter registration, and polling tactics to try to demoralize Conservatives. Look at the unflattering picture of Palin on Newsweek. OMG she is a REAL person, not a Baracky Hollywood Botox celebrity!
I mentioned these things to my wife, who is not very political. She said “they (Dems and MSM)are scared”. If she sees this, so does most of the rest of America. America doesn’t like mean, underhanded elitist tactics and its showing. McCain has better numbers than GWB did at this point in his election…this is nowhere near over.
Comment by Bfidler — 10/9/2008 @ 1:55 pm
At this point in the race in 2000, one poll had Al Gore up by 9 points. Does anyone know which poll that was? Also, wasn’t Kerry ahead in all polls leading right into Election Day in 2004?
Rush said if Obama isn’t up by 15 points going into Election Day, he’s going to lose. I’m hoping.
Comment by Peg C. — 10/9/2008 @ 2:11 pm
Thanks for saving me the time of figuring that out. I knew there had to be a methodology difference between the polls, I just didn’t know what it was.
This race is definitely close nationwide. Ultimately, Obama’s advantage is better expressed in his increasing numbers in the swing states than in his increasing numbers the country overall. If Obama gets a landslide, it will be in the electoral college, not the popular vote.
By the way, Cindy McCain just said Obama is running the “dirtiest campaign she’s ever seen” according to the AP. Yeah, right.
Calling Obama a terrorist and a communist, as well as the race-baiting propaganda attempting to stick the whole credit crisis on low-income housing for blacks is about the dirtiest campaigning I’ve ever seen. Whether Obama wins or loses, Republicans have managed to make themselves look like total assholes this election year.
Comment by Phil — 10/9/2008 @ 2:12 pm
You’re out of your league, clown.
Perhaps you should be talking about why Sarah Palin and her husband want Alaska to split from the US.
Or maybe the stock market.
Or maybe it’s time to whip out the counterfeit birth certificate story!
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 2:16 pm
low-income housing for blacks
Oh really? Who ever once use the term “blacks” when discussing this situation (aside from Barney Frank)? Sounds like you assume that low-income housing is for “blacks” so it’s convenient for you to project that mentality on the Republicans? Yeah of course we all know that the only people who took out these mortgages are poor ergo black right Phil, you fucking racist douchebag! Wow look who’s the racist here. Hey everyone - look it’s Phil the racist! We already knew you were a complete prick with your “killing and raping women and children” crack about the military so now we find out you’re a racist too. Damn, Phil, you really go lower every time you post.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:18 pm
“I am a woman seeking truth in a beautiful world ruled by a deceitful society. I am not who I was, nor who I will be… I know more than I want to, but not nearly enough.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:20 pm
McCain/Palin fans NEVER call Obama a terrorist!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E
Conservative Pride!
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 2:22 pm
““I am a woman seeking truth in a beautiful world ruled by a deceitful society. I am not who I was, nor who I will be… I know more than I want to, but not nearly enough.”
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:23 pm
Correction teen-Klompus, pretend soldier:
Barney Frank called them “porch monkeys” - not “blacks.”
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 2:23 pm
Klompus, I’m on Obama’s side. Therefor I don’t have to speak in innuendo and make implications about these sorts of things. I can just say it.
The viral videos going around the Internet, the photos that accompany press releases — they all prominently or exclusively feature blacks.
Republicans protest so much that racism has nothing to do with this election and their attacks on Obama. I like this little meme that’s going around:
get an education
What if John McCain were a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating
class?
What if McCain were still married to the first woman he said “I do” to?
What if Obama were the candidate who left his first wife after she no
longer measured up to his standards?
What if Michelle Obama were a wife who not only became addicted to pain
killers, but acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
What if Obama were a member of the Keating-5?
What if McCain were a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
If these questions reflected reality, do you really believe the election
numbers would be as close as they are?
This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes
positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in
another when there is a color difference.
PS: What if Barack Obama had an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter….
*******
You are The Boss… which team would you hire?
With America facing historic debt, 2 wars, stumbling health care, a
weakened dollar, all-time high prison population, mortgage crises,
bank foreclosures, etc.
Educational Background:
Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.
McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899
Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism
Comment by Phil — 10/9/2008 @ 2:24 pm
““I am a woman seeking truth in a beautiful world ruled by a deceitful society. I am not who I was, nor who I will be… I know more than I want to, but not nearly enough.”
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:24 pm
Oh tell us more about the poor “blacks” you give so much of a shit about, Phil.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:25 pm
Oh Meta you’re such a radical freedom fighter. I can feel the system crumbling beneath your revolutionary fervor.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:27 pm
Phil and Meta, like the trolls before them, are projecting their racism onto everyone else.
Comment by Grand Kleage Byrd (KKK/Dem - WV) — 10/9/2008 @ 2:28 pm
Phil — I’ve heard many political analyst say that state polls tend to be lagging indicators of where the race stands. That’s because state polling is not done as frequently as tracking polls, and oftentimes is done by smaller outfits which are not as experienced as the firms conducting the national polls for media organizations.
Single polls are snapshots, whereas tracking polls and the movement of poll averages shows the trendline. Through last weekend, the trend line favored Obama. Now its more muddled.
Comment by WLS — 10/9/2008 @ 2:29 pm
They don’t, so why talk about it? Or are you still clinging to a lie that was discredit around three weeks ago?
Comment by Rob Crawford — 10/9/2008 @ 2:31 pm
Palin is more accomplished than Obama even pretends to be. BTW, visit Powerline. Some strong arguments for the theory that “Dreams From My Father” was largely written by Bill Ayers. It’s a lightbulb over the head moment and would certainly explain why Obama, without a teleprompter, is pedantic, inarticulate and profoundly uninspiring. I’ve said all along he is not the smart dude his acolytes pretend he is.
Comment by Peg C. — 10/9/2008 @ 2:36 pm
Censorship!
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 2:38 pm
When are you guys going to release the video of Michelle Obama complaining about “Whitey”?
I know you’ve all seen it. Why the hesitation to bring the truth to the American people?
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 2:42 pm
Phil - Why all the hatred?
I love it when the trolls simply copy and paste other people’s thoughts.
Comment by JD — 10/9/2008 @ 2:45 pm
Oooh Meta can I come over and watch Tivo’d episodes of Democracy Now! and thumb through your copies of Z? And then make hot monkey love while you scream out “Viva Zaptista!”?
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:45 pm
24. JD you have to understand. When you care so much about all of those poor “blacks” the way Phil does it gets tiring standing up in the front line fighting against racism and militarism the way he does.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 2:46 pm
RCP should be thoroughly discarded, for it is an amalgam of crap. What matters now is the state polls, and more importantly, the state polls that have historic standing.
Trends matter, and throwing in irrelevant snapshots (outliers) does not a trend make.
Comment by bains — 10/9/2008 @ 3:01 pm
The problem with this (and it’s a real problem) is that there is a segment of the voting population who wants to “vote for the winner”, and if polls show that X is more likely to win, they will preferentially vote for X, even if they’d rather that Y wins. I suspect that it’s a small segment, maybe 5-10% at most, but in lots of races, that’s enough to tip it from one to the other.
Comment by htom — 10/9/2008 @ 3:07 pm
No that’s completely wrong. Barack Obama is actually Bill Ayers wearing boot polish. Serious. It’s been documented and really explains a lot.
Comment by Peter — 10/9/2008 @ 3:15 pm
For all of the geniuses predicting a McCain win, I’d suggest going over to Intrade and buying some shares in McCain. At 24.1 you can make a killing.
Comment by PC — 10/9/2008 @ 3:26 pm
Comment by Phil — 10/9/2008 @ 2:24 pm
Another original thought from Phil, previously discredited.
Comment by Another Drew — 10/9/2008 @ 3:30 pm
Where can I get a McCain/Palin armband to wear at the next rally?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT8OFncxEkc
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 3:40 pm
Are you even allowed out without minders?
Comment by Another Drew — 10/9/2008 @ 3:44 pm
PC — last night there was a $140,000 bet on McCain to win.
Its possible that was simply a hedge by someone with a ton of money bet on Obama (I did that once when I was sitting on a winning 8 game parlay if I won the Monday Night Football Game — bet $5000 on the MNF game the opposite of my parlay. Lost the parlay, took home $5,000). But $140,000 would be HUGE hedge.
Comment by WLS — 10/9/2008 @ 3:45 pm
WLS, perhaps someone thinks Comrade McCain’s plan to have the government buy mortgages will help save the campaign.
Comment by PC — 10/9/2008 @ 4:00 pm
Whether Obama wins or loses, Republicans have managed to make themselves look like total assholes this election year
So sayeth the sage who calls American soldiers rapists and murderers - without a shred of proof, save for Commander Kerry’s false testimony before Congress (which Kerry later admitted were fabrications).
Philhemina, if you ever find your gonads again, best pick them up and put them where they belong -in your mouth.
Comment by Dmac — 10/9/2008 @ 4:03 pm
Lt. Calley / My Lai?
Didn’t happen?
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 4:16 pm
Lt. Calley was typical? Don’t think so. But the trend of Lefty Obamatrons smearing the US military holds up.
Comment by Karl — 10/9/2008 @ 4:26 pm
And Lt. Calley was prosecuted, and found guilty, for his crimes, and sent to Fort Leavenworth in disgrace.
That is usually what happens in a country that salutes, and recognizes, the Rule of Law (and is what happened to those miscreants at Abu Graib, also).
The wheels of justice, though they sometimes grind slow, do grind fine….
If you can’t do the time, don’t do the crime.
Comment by Another Drew — 10/9/2008 @ 4:27 pm
And, once again, the left dredges up My Lai to condemn the many for the actions of the few. Just like clockwork. Hey, I’ve got an idea! Let’s call all Arabs savage killers! I mean, they’ve got Osama and all them crazy terrorists, so they must all be murderers, right?
And thus, the problem with calling our brave men in uniform who served in Vietnam “rapists and murderers.” (To say nothing of the fact that “murder” by a soldier at war basically doesn’t actually exist…but that’s a discussion for another day.)
Comment by Chris — 10/9/2008 @ 4:30 pm
Metacom, if you look at your feet, I think you’ll see that you are the only one here wearing oversize red colored floppy shoes.
Comment by SPQR — 10/9/2008 @ 4:35 pm
<i.”I am a woman seeking truth in a beautiful world ruled by a deceitful society. I am not who I was, nor who I will be… I know more than I want to, but not nearly enough.”
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 4:37 pm
damn html tags - too busy usurping the hegemonic patriarchal imperialism of Thanksgiving.
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 4:37 pm
Jack, Fight the Man! Reject markup languages as the forms of oppression that they are.
Comment by SPQR — 10/9/2008 @ 4:42 pm
I stand poised and ready to demolish capitalism and colonialism with Malcolm X quotes, essays by UT journalism professors, and indie films about Seattle riots. Can you not feel the power of my revolutionary fervor, comrades?!
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/9/2008 @ 4:49 pm
42-43…
You guys are just too funny!
Comment by Another Drew — 10/9/2008 @ 4:50 pm
To the baracades, Tovorichi!
Comment by Another Drew — 10/9/2008 @ 4:52 pm
Metamucil is too ridiculous to even respond to directly.
Comment by Dmac — 10/9/2008 @ 7:15 pm
Metamucil and Phil each brought up My Lai today. Fuckers.
Comment by JD — 10/9/2008 @ 7:17 pm
Not only does James Zogby’s Arab American Institute support Obama’s campaign, both James and John Joseph Zogby have contributed to Obama’s campaign (indivs-search). James Zogby even wrote an article just days ago entitled, “Hillary can’t win Democratic nomination.” How ethical is it to contribute to a campaign monetarily but also to sway the opinions of millions of voters in favor of the candidate you openly support? Who happens to also be of Arab heritage.
Comment by mario — 10/9/2008 @ 7:22 pm
So does today mark the day when Republicans are finally willing to come right out and say that they hate Arabs?
I mean - everybody knows you guys really, really hate Arabs and non-Arab Muslims - that much is clear. It will be refreshing to see you wear your bigotry proudly on your sleeves for once.
It’s a nice bit of icing on the cake in terms of the explaining your heretofore apparently irrational support of the ongoing war in Iraq. With “Arabs suck” as an official plank in the GOP platform, people around the world will stop wondering about your sanity.
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 10:18 pm
Racists
Comment by JD — 10/9/2008 @ 10:24 pm
So does today mark the day when Democrats are finally willing to come right out and say that they hate America?
I mean - everybody knows you guys really, really hate America and especially flyover country - that much is clear. It will be refreshing to see you wear your bigotry proudly on your sleeves for once.
Comment by JD — 10/9/2008 @ 10:25 pm
metacom,
Mario is probably a Moby. If you like, however, I will grant that Demcorats probably have a huge problem with racism. They practically invented American racism, after all, and from Jim Crow to opposing the civil rights act, no force in America has been more racially destructive than the KKK affiliated Democratic party of which 1/3 of the members openly admit will not vote for black men and have nominated a anti gay rights bigot again.
The GOP has problems too, of course. I’m familiar with a lot of Iraqi-Americans who think Bush is an awesome president, so I think our tent is big enough for Arabs. It’s not big enough for Islamo-facists such as PLO spokesmen, or domestic socialist terrorists like Ayers, both of whom are behind the New Party nominee, Barack Obama (who isn’t Arab or Muslim, but is a slimeball).
Comment by Juan — 10/9/2008 @ 10:27 pm
Whoops - this doesn’t look so good for Palin!
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/10/palin_chryson/index.html
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 10:48 pm
Could Todd Palin have murdered Joe Vogler?
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 11:00 pm
Uh oh!
There’s a video:
http://www.salon.com/ent/video_dog/politics/2008/10/10/blumenthal_chryson/index.html?source=video&aim=/ent/video_dog/politics
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 11:11 pm
Juan:
Please explain to me what you mean by “Mario is probably a Moby.”
Thanks.
Comment by Metacom — 10/9/2008 @ 11:12 pm
Metacom - Get up to speed, troll. This shit’s been answered before, unlike Obama’s lies regarding his relationship to the terrorist and socialist Ayers, among many other scum.
Palin didn’t lie about having been to their event. It was the Obama campaign that put forward the lie that Palin was a member of the AIP. When the AIP was asked about that, they acknowledged Palin wasn’t a member.
Quite a bit of a difference than being selected by a former domestic bomber to be chairman of the board for a socialist indoctrination campaign against schoolchildren that blew 150M funneling money to radical groups.
And then lying about that membership. As well as lying about the relationship with Ayers.
Spin all you want, but Obama’s caught with the scum, and caught lying about it as well.
Keep campaigning for Obama. He apparently needs the help.
Comment by Apogee — 10/9/2008 @ 11:12 pm
Here’s another lie from your ‘chosen one’
Why is Obama so afraid of the truth?
Comment by Apogee — 10/9/2008 @ 11:17 pm
Metacom,
A moby is a person who pretends to be something they aren’t. They know that some ascribe guilt by association (for example, you called Republicans racist because of Mario’s post), so they go along with the general agenda but throw in something unacceptable, such as racism (which I and all Republicans I know find unacceptable).
I have no idea if Mario is indeed a Moby, but I know that several racists have eventually been proven to be mobies (And many of them at Ace of Spades have IP addresses suggesting they are working for Axelrod).
Comment by Juan — 10/9/2008 @ 11:25 pm
The mighty revolutionary Meta speaks:
“I am a woman seeking truth in a beautiful world ruled by a deceitful society. I am not who I was, nor who I will be… I know more than I want to, but not nearly enough.”
Fight Thanksgiving! Join the Metacom-Jensen Liberation Front and smash imperialism! Recreate Seattle!
Comment by Jack Klompus — 10/10/2008 @ 8:33 am
And what was so good about the old Seattle that we would need to recreate it? **rolling eyes**
Comment by Another Drew — 10/10/2008 @ 8:39 am
WLS:
God bless yer heart WLS. You never say die. But did you see the new results for your favorite Poll, the Battleground poll?
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/06 - 10/09 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
What make you of this? Inquiring minds would like to know.
Think maybe now they should begin to focus on the issues??
Comment by Peter — 10/10/2008 @ 9:59 am
#2 (sorry I am late)
Wow, there are thousands of people in the state of California that want to see Palin speak?! Impressive. I’ll bet 3,000-4,000 is all that will be needed to carry that state. I likey!
Go ahead and ignore the polls, but you will be mighty disappointed in a few weeks.
Comment by truthnjustice — 10/10/2008 @ 1:07 pm
Talk about a double-whammy! Petey and ruthnpustules back-to-back.
And both of them clinging to polls like they’re life preservers on the Titanic.
Comment by Icy Truth — 10/10/2008 @ 1:17 pm
Polling will be very unreliable this year because of the outside factors, such as the Dow, and because of the Bradley effect. The astroturfers are really rolling now. The AIP thing is ludicrous since every dingbat will try to take credit for Palin if they find a credulous lefty. Even Buchanan tried to say on MSNBC that she was a big contributer to his campaign. He never offered a word when it was shown to be a lie but he is still pontificating on MCNBC.
I agree with Cindy McCain. This will only get dirtier as the Obama people see the race stay close. They have the MSM on their side and this will convince them even more that right and truth are on their side. If Obama loses in spite of ACORN, it will really be hysterical.
Comment by Mike K — 10/10/2008 @ 1:57 pm
“Rush said if Obama isn’t up by 15 points going into Election Day, he’s going to lose. I’m hoping.”
haha! Obama up by 14! GREAT NEWS FOR MCCAIN!
Comment by imdw — 10/10/2008 @ 4:29 pm
This is great info to know.
Comment by Patty — 10/22/2008 @ 3:31 am